METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN OPINION POLLS: CASE STUDY OF GUJARAT LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

Abstract

During the election times, opinion polls are stimulating considerable debate among the voters, politicians and the media.  They have a profound psychological impact on some voters’ choice of a political party while voting. In India, the media plays a vital role in conducting opinion polls and disseminating its results. Media houses are the direct beneficiary of opinion polls as it increases their reach. In one of the legislative assembly elections of ‘Gujarat’, a western state of India, such opinion polls were conducted, disseminated and condemned because of their wrong predictions. This case presents the details of the output of various opinion polls conducted in Gujarat assembly elections and compares it with actual results. The potential reasons for imprecision in this opinion polls are also narrated.