FORECASTING TECHNIQUE TO PREDICT PATIENT VOLUMES IN HOME HEALTHCARE SERVICE

Abstract

Health care is essential for the general welfare of society. It provides for the prevention, treatment and management of illnesses and the preservation of mental and physical well-being through the provision of medical and allied health services. Healthcare planning serves a critical role in the institution's capacity to prepare and execute plans to meet the needs of a constantly evolving healthcare system. Thus, in this work, forecasting technique to predict patient volumes in healthcare service in Jeddah were analyzed. This work was conducted based on quantitative research method. The study sample consisted of all hospitals providing home health care services in Jeddah. Three methods of forecasting have been used for comparison in this work.  The forecasting methods compared are simple average moving method, double weighted average moving method, and simple exponential smoothing method. In addition, to determine the most accurate method, root mean square error (RMSE) analysis was carried out. The results have shown that simple moving average method had the best accuracy among the other forecasting methods